Paris: Following a slowdown in 2025, growth in global demand for natural gas is expected to rise in 2026.
According to Emirates News Agency, the report provides a short-term outlook for natural gas supply, demand, trade, and more for the years 2025 and 2026. It highlights that market fundamentals remained tight in the first half of 2025 due to a combination of decreased Russian piped gas exports to the European Union, modest growth in liquefied natural gas (LNG) output, and increased storage injection needs in Europe.
In this context, and amid elevated macroeconomic uncertainty, global natural gas demand growth is forecast to slow from 2.8% in 2024 to around 1.3% in 2025. This increase is expected to be almost entirely driven by North America and Europe, with consumption growth in the Asia-Pacific region, where many markets are sensitive to higher prices, falling to its weakest annual rate since the energy crisis in 2022.
The report anticipates global demand growth picking up again in 2026, accelerating to around 2% as a significant increase in LNG supply eases market fundamentals and fosters stronger demand growth in Asia. In 2026, LNG supply is projected to rise by 7%, or 40 bcm, marking its largest increase since 2019, as new projects come online in the United States, Canada, and Qatar.
The report includes a special section on the role of the Middle East in global gas markets, noting that geopolitical tensions in the region have fueled recent price volatility. Keisuke Sadamori, IEA Director of Energy Markets and Security, stated, 'The wave of LNG supply that is set to come online is poised to ease fundamentals and spur additional demand, especially in Asia.' However, the forecast is subject to high levels of uncertainty over the global macroeconomic outlook and the volatile geopolitical environment.
In the first half of 2025, global natural gas consumption in Europe increased by 6.5% year-over-year, primarily supported by the electricity sector amid lower power generation from wind and hydro. While this should not be interpreted as a structural trend, such episodes highlight the key role gas-fired power plants often play in ensuring electricity supply security in markets with higher shares of variable renewables.
