Geneva: An El Ni±o event is expected to develop from mid-2026, impacting global temperature and rainfall patterns.
According to Emirates News Agency, the latest Global Seasonal Climate Update from WMO signals a clear shift in the Equatorial Pacific: sea-surface temperatures are rising rapidly, pointing to a likely return of El Ni±o conditions as early as May-July 2026. Forecasts indicate there is a 'nearly global dominance of above-normal land surface temperatures' in the upcoming three-month period, along with regional variations in rainfall patterns.
After a period of neutral conditions at the start of the year, climate models are now strongly aligned, and there is high confidence in the onset of El Ni±o, followed by further intensification in the months that follow,' said Wilfran Moufouma Okia, Chief of Climate Prediction at WMO. 'Models indicate that this may be a strong event - but the so-called spring predictability barrier is a challenge for the certainty of forecasts at this time of year. Forecast confidence generally improves after April,' he says.
El Ni±o is characterized by a warming of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern Equatorial Pacific. It typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts around nine to twelve months.
