Jakarta:Indonesia's National Disaster Mitigation Agency (BNPB) is actively preparing for potential drought conditions as the El Niño weather phenomenon is expected to delay the onset of the rainy season into early 2027.
According to Wam, BNPB is closely monitoring weather updates from the Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) to assess the potential for prolonged drought. The agency, along with various ministries and local governments, is working on developing daily and weekly measures to manage the risks of drought and forest and land fires. These measures include "weather modification operations" that aim to increase rainfall potential through the seeding of NaCl and similar materials.
Central Java and Yogyakarta have already experienced 131 consecutive days without rain, attributed to the influence of El Niño. BMKG has reported that the Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly has reached +2.63 degrees, indicating a very strong El Niño that is projected to last until early 2027. This anomaly is expected to delay the start of the rainy season across most of Indonesia, affecting 529 seasonal zones, or 61.08% of the country's land area.
The BMKG forecasts that the rains will begin to arrive gradually from November 2026 in 185 seasonal zones (24.66%) and in December in 266 zones (17.31%). Despite the delayed start, accumulated rainfall in 510 zones (69.76%) is predicted to remain normal. The peak of the rainy season is expected in December 2026 in 155 zones (36.94%), January 2027 in 162 zones (25.68%), and February 2027 in 190 zones (16.79%). Additionally, the BMKG predicts a shorter-than-normal rainy season in 482 zones.
